18.
04.16
11:42

The CFTC figures for wheat and maize from the 12.04.2016

At the wheat speculator in Chicago, the net short positions have increased in the last week of the report to the 12.04.2016 significantly to 38.425 contracts on total 106.163 NET short positions. The courses greatly came under pressure on the stock exchange and are on the same low level as in the years 2009/2010 Even the most recent USDA figures by the 12 April 2016 confirm the rise of closing stock in the current marketing year. The profit for the year by 25 million tonnes is due almost exclusively to wheat, while coarse grain grew only by 1 million tons. Ratio to use with high grain end stocks by 484 million tonnes and well above-average stock - the wheat 33.7% (5-year average 29.3%), in the coarse grain 19.4% (5-year average 17.0%)-it soon enters the new WJ 2016/17. This is one of the main causes that the wheat prices are in Chicago to the lowest level since 2006. Voltage may be serviced and now on the next USDA figures in may, for the first time with the estimate for the year 2016/17. It may be quite included in the next financial year with a lower wheat production, but also the consumption expectation leaves to be desired. From today's perspective no is therefore in the next financial year to expect extreme stock to use ratio change in the wheat. But also the corn plays a major role for the remaining grain prices. How the maize production in the WJ 2016/17 will develop is still "in the stars" or maize sowing has started in the last few days. The market situation is extremely confusing, so use of a relatively inexpensive "worst-case-PUT-option" for a subset can be seriously taken into consideration. An option replaces any sale decision on the spot or futures market, but limits the risks of a negative price development and can benefit from any positive developments in rates. An option is suitable in particular for a part of hedging in a complex market situation, the same opportunities and risks for falling or rising prices offers, so in principle for the current situation. In contrast to many minimum price contracts, which are offered in the spot market directly traded options on the stock exchange are cheaper and offer the possibility not only to a 1:1 protection (strike rate at the current exchange rate derivatives market), but to a so-called "worst case protection" (strike price of 10 to 15 euro/t below current futures price).

When the corn speculators in Chicago, the net short positions have reduced in the last week of the report to the 12.04.2016 significantly to 26.160 contracts on total 135.705 NET short positions. The courses could recover easily.

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