In the last week of the report to the 13.09.2016 speculators in Chicago declined the wheat slightly the net short positions to 7.139 contracts on now 125.438 NET short positions. The courses could recover accordingly easily.
The latest USDA figures from the September 2016 fall for the first time for many months the estimated Getreideendbestände in the year 2016/17 to a total of 7 million tonnes. The wheat, an increase consumption to 4 million tonnes faces a world only slightly increasing production. In the coarse grain, however, the production is estimated lower while the consumption expectation remained relatively stable. The aforementioned changes compared to the previous month are based in particular on the reported figures from China and work for the events on the world market only to a limited extent. The still above-average supplies of grain - world end stocks of over 500 million tons and a stock to use ratio in wheat by 33.8% (30.5% the average of recent years) and in the coarse grain of 19.3% (last 18.0% in average years) no sustainable correction of rates can be expected. While in the United States, grain prices have reached their lowest level for more than ten years, the courses in Paris still on a much higher level in the wheat about plus 30 Euro / t and maize hold approx. 45 EUR per tonne. The causes of the differences in price are especially in the weak euro and the established trade routes to North Africa and the Middle East. However, one must assume that the goods of the export-strong Black Sea and that the United States will find strengthened in traditional European trading partner countries the way in the next few months at appropriate rates. Ultimately, there is currently enough grain on the world market and the required special qualities will make their way to the consumer even if the flows of goods temporarily changed this year.
The arguments about the year's grain crop (except corn) seem largely replaced, and it is speculated about the upcoming cultivation and harvesting next year. The lowest point of the courses in the United States seems so slow and it is believed that the farmer due to weak prices of less wheat will sow. Now, America is a major exporter, but not alone in the world as also this year the Black Sea show impressive.
Even when maize speculators in Chicago, the net short positions have reduced in the last week of the report. A minus of 33.953 contracts revealed now 146.940 NET short positions. The courses could recover accordingly easily.
