27.
03.15
16:00

COCERAL 2015 lower estimates EU crop

COCERAL estimates EU cereal harvest by 2015 to 21 million tonnes, or  -6.5 a lower the umbrella organisation of the European grain and oilseed trader (COCERAL) has classified significantly below the previous year level the EU cereals crop in its first estimate. Around 20 million tonnes less grain should be soon available.

The largest losses are predicted Germany with approximately 5 million tonnes, UK with approximately 2.8 million tonnes and in Romania and Hungary with 2.6 million tons each. 1.8 million tonnes of less should be harvested in Poland. More 6 million tonnes of crop reduction, see the sum of the remaining 20 EU Member States.

The largest EU grain production area in France is to generate a similar-sized crop of approximately 70 million. In Spain alone, a 6% more crop than last year's disaster year is expected.

The harvest reductions go back to the small part on 0.5% space reduction, but the overweight by 3.4% on lower earnings expectations .

Lower yield expectations are primarily borne by the assessment, that the probability of repetition by top income after 2 consecutive years with a frequency of 5 years is low. The demotion of the income assumptions has impacted specifically in the corn crops. This affected the South Eastern European countries in particular, where above-average harvest declines are expected. However, the corn is not yet seeded.

The mild winter has created favorable launch conditions for winter crops. Therefore, other Treasury institutions come to higher crop estimates. However the yield decisive time span is imminent may yet June or August in months.

If the low estimate of harvest actually occurs, the year will be to classify 2015/16 regarding the critical supply situation than the previous year. The problem is aggravated by a clearly built up surplus inventory as a result of the EU's euro beneficiary export activities. On the consumption side is to be expected with little change.

For the assessment of price developments , it's however still decisively on the world market supply, the exchange-rate developments and possible political decisions in terms of trade.

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