25.
09.15
15:43

COCERAL estimates EU cereal harvest

Coceral estimates EU.-harvest slightly higher a 2015/16

The umbrella organisation of the European grain and oilseed trader (COCERAL) has estimated the EU cereal harvest to 307.3 million tonnes in its recent quarterly Edition. The result is approximately at the level that the International Grains Council (IGC) has published a few days before with 305.1 million tonnes. The estimate of the US Department of agriculture (USDA) beginning Sept. 15 came only on rd 303 million tonnes.

All estimates is shared, that the previous forecasts a weak wheat harvest are not materialized have. The present results are more around 5 to 10 million tonnes higher than they were 2 months ago under the impression of more heat waves, the Central Europe affected has moved to estimators.

Coceral estimates the harvest of wheat including durum to 156 million tonnes. The French crop is prized on 42 million tonnes and the German to 26 million tonnes. The British wheat harvest nearly reached 16 million tonnes and Poland brings it despite precipitation deficits on 11.2 million metric tons.

You are however extremely weak predictions for corn . Coceral estimated nor 59.5 million tonnes after a last year's bumper crop of 74 million t the lowest estimate comes from the IGC, which originates only from 57.6 million tonnes.

The biggest losses in the corn crop are expected in France with 4 million tonnes or 23.5% below last year's level. For Germany, is expected to decline by more than 1.3 million tons, or about 25%. In Hungary, it calculates with a reduced harvest in the amount of 2.6 million tons, or about 29%. Romania estimates its corn harvest to 3.5 million tons or 22% lower than 2. largest maize producer in the EU.

The different effects of the weather on the individual grains explains the agro-meteorological Institute of EU MARS with the growth State of the plants at the time of the bad weather conditions. The corn was taken in yield crucial pollination and grain formation stage, as the wheat had already mostly pass through the critical phase of the income.

The EU crop provides with the result of wheat high export potential, which is estimated at over 30 million tons.  Crucial is a sufficiently high competitiveness, especially against the Black Sea countries. 

In the case of the corn balance sheet , the net import situation in the EU by 8 million tons to around 15 million tonnes is almost doubled. A considerable part of the EU wheat surplus will be diverted as a corn substitute in the feeding trough.

Wheat exports should achieve the target size, the high surplus stocks at the beginning of the year will be significantly degraded at the end of the period of the economy. Plenty of room for price reductions are not visible from this perspective.

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