COCERAL estimates EU grain harvest 1.5% higher in 2024 than in the previous year
In its June issue, the European umbrella organization of grain and oilseed traders (COCERAL) estimated the EU-27 grain harvest in 2024 to be only +1.5% higher than the previous year at 275 million tonnes. The 1st estimate was +1.7 %. This is based on a slightly lower area under cultivation, but a +1 dt/ha higher expected yield.
In France, the EU's largest growing region, the harvest is expected to be -9.5 % lower at around 58 million tons. In addition to a slightly reduced area, the yield per hectare will be significantly lower. The main reason for this is the unfavorable weather conditions with extreme amounts of precipitation.
In Germany, the second-largest production region, the harvest is forecast to be -1.3% lower at 42.5 million tons. The decisive factor is the reduced area under cultivation, while the yield is expected to be only slightly lower than in the previous year.
Poland's grain harvest is expected to fall by -1.1% to 34.7 million tons. Area and yield each contribute to the result.
Italian production is forecast to fall by -5.7% to 12.7 million tons. A significantly lower area under cultivation cannot be offset by the higher yield expectations.
In Spain, grain production is expected to double compared to the disastrous previous year to 21.3 million tons (previous year: 10.6 million tons), but will still remain below the multi-year average.
In the EU countries of south-eastern Europe, Hungary's -11% fall is out of line with the other countries, most of which posted positive results.
The EU-27 wheat harvest fell from 126 million tons last year to 122.6 million tons this year. France played a decisive role in this with a decline of -5 million tons. Germany is also responsible for a shortfall of around 1 million tons. A partial compensation is achieved by Spain with +3 million tons and the Nordic countries Sweden, Finland and Denmark.
The barley harvest is estimated to be +5 million tons higher than in the previous year. Lower acreage of winter varieties is more than offset by increased spring barley.
Higher yields are forecast for rye (7.9 million tons)and triticale (11.2 million tons), primarily due to higher yields per hectare.
For maize, COCERAL estimates an increase to 64.7 million tons (previous year: 63.7 million tons) with an unchanged yield level compared to the previous year due to a larger area under cultivation.
The EU oat harvest is expected to achieve unusually high year-on-year growth of +29% due to the expansion of acreage and higher yield expectations. Spain, Sweden and Germany account for a large proportion of this growth.
