Coceral estimates EU-27 grain harvest 2022 lower at 282.6 million t (previous year 285 million t) In its first forecast at the end of March 2022 , the umbrella organization of European grain and oilseed traders (Coceral) estimated the EU-27 grain harvest 2022 to 282.6 million t compared to the preliminary estimate. incl. Around 319 million t are forecast for GB. . The future close trade relations with the UK suggest that the exit country should continue to be included in the considerations of market and price developments. The main reason for the currently lower figures is a roughly 0.4 dt/ha lower expected yield due to this year's fertilizer ratios. The area under cultivation was assumed to be only slightly higher. Compared to the previous year 2021, a moderate decline in the harvest is expected for the time being. The result would thus remain within the good average of recent years .If consumption is expected to be lower as a result of reduced animal stocks, the previously increased imports could be further reduced and, depending on the sales situation at world level, increasing exports could be achieved. However, the decisive earnings-forming phase in June is still to come. World market conditions also still play a significant role. There are different developments in the individual Member States. In France, COCERAL estimates a significantly weaker harvest due to the yield, although the current seed level is rated above average. For Germany, Coceral expects a slightly larger harvest than the DRV estimate. After last year's record harvest with maximum maize yields, a comparative harvest reduction of -7.5% is predicted for Romania; Spain's above-average result from last year should not be repeated. A smaller harvest is also expected for Poland due to the yield. For Hungary , COCERAL estimates a significant yield-related crop growth of +12.5% after the poor previous year. Growth of 2.3% is also expected for Great Britain after the barely average previous year. This means that the British will continue to be welcome wheat exporters, especially this year, with global demand increasing. The German harvest of 42.8 million t with a reduced consumption of 41.5 million t can ensure a sufficient supply situation in Germany. However, there are deficits in maize and the higher-quality wheat qualities. The wheat harvest in the EU-27 is set back to 126.8 million t by -1% compared to the previous year . The decisive factor is the French harvest, which is classified as weaker. The EU average yield is estimated at 58.8 dt/ha.Coceral estimates the barley harvest of the EU-27 at 52 million t compared to 52.3 million t in the previous year. The decline is mainly due to the lower income assumptions. With almost unchanged acreage, the EU-27 maize harvest is expected to remain stable at 67 million tons . But the sowing has not yet taken place. The Coceral estimate in March is initially based on little changed acreage. The area yields are based on average yields over several years. Winter damage is not known. Therefore, some reservations are still to be made due to the future weather and fertilizer behavior.
