Coceral estimates EU-27 grain harvest in 2021 up to 291.2 million tonnes (previous year 278.1 million tonnes), the umbrella organization of European grain and oilseed traders (Coceral), in its third advance estimate in mid-May, the EU-27 grain harvest in 2021 In 2021, increased to 291 million t compared to the forecast. Incl. GB around 315 million t are forecast. . The close trade relations with the UK in the future, too, suggest that the exit country should continue to be included in the analysis of market and price developments. In the March estimate , Coceral had forecast 7 million tons lower harvest results. The decisive reason for the currently higher numbers is an average yield that is around 2 dt / ha higher due to previous weather developments. The acreage has only been revised upwards slightly. Compared to the previous year 2020, there could be an increase of more than 4.5% .This would mean a more than good average harvest in 2021. If consumption is expected to be lower as a result of reduced animal populations, the hitherto increased imports could be reduced and, depending on the sales situation, higher exports could be achieved at world level. This could result in a more relaxed supply situation than in the previous year. However, the decisive earnings-generating phase is yet to come in June. The weather conditions during harvest time also play a role. There are different developments in the individual Member States. After the extremely weak harvests of the previous year in France, Great Britain and Romania , good average results are again expected in these countries for 2021. In France , around 9 million t or around 19% more are expected to be harvested. After the catastrophic previous year, an increase of over 30% is predicted in Romania. After the extremely weak previous year, growth of over 20% is also expected for Great Britain.This will make the British a competing grain exporter again. On the other hand, a repeat of the previous year's record harvest (25.4 million t ) in Spain is not expected. The forecast is 23.7 million t in 2021. The grain prices in this importing country have already increased. At 44 million tons, the German harvest is expected to be around 2% higher than in the previous year. With a reduced consumption of 41.5 million t, an adequate supply situation can be expected in this country. The wheat harvest in the EU-27 + GB– is estimated at around 146 million t (130.9 + 14.9 million t) . In the previous year it was only 135.7 million t in total. The increases are caused by larger harvests in France and the UK due to higher acreage and yields. The average yield is estimated at 60 dt / ha.Coceral estimates the barley harvest in the EU-27 at 55.4 mln t compared to the previous year with 55.9 mln t. The decline is mainly due to the smaller area under cultivation; rising yield assumptions can only compensate for this to a limited extent. With the area under cultivation almost unchanged, the EU-27 maize harvest is expected to increase by 2 million t to 64.7 million t . Romania has a major share in this with a little under +2 million t. The Coceral estimate in May is initially based on the well-established basis of the acreage . The area yields are aligned with the trend line based on previous weather developments. But the yield assumptions can still be decisively influenced by the weather. The recent increase in grain prices will be slowed down significantly by the forecast supply development.
