05.
12.14
09:51

Commerzbank forecast for autumn 2015: wheat, €200 per t, rape falling €350 per t, soy

Extensive forecasts with orientation character

The agricultural section of the Commerzbank in the United States published its vision of the future prices for key agricultural products.

Wheat prices on the Paris stock exchange are forecast for the period Oct Dec 2015 in the order of €200 / t . Several reasons for this perspective are supplied.

(a) the apparent difficulties Russia with winter wheat sowing will contribute to a considerable reduction of the coming harvest in 2015. Tightening added a significant consumption as a result of increasing livestock to compensate for the import lock-related dairy and meat imports. Remembered the year 2009 with similar initial conditions, a dry summer could again reduce the harvest results.

(b) in the Ukraine , the economical use of inflation due to expensive resources will contribute to the reduction of the Flächenerträge. Also in this case harvesting and export volumes will be expected to be smaller.

(c) a repeat of a bumper crop with high yields for highly unlikely stops for the EU . Thus, the world's largest wheat producer, less on the world supply situation will help.

(d) the production of wheat in the United States is already for several years, well below the average of earlier decades. Also for 2015 is not a high harvest.

e) growing demand for wheat remains in close relation to the world's population and the rising income.

Soy cheaper should be clear according to the estimates of the Commerzbank. The completed record US harvest while still needs time, to bridge the almost supplied transition between old and new crop and price soothing reserves to build up. To enough always the output compared to the previous year. Sharply rising end stocks underpin this statement.

The coming South American crops have been sown though just, but alone the farmland with middle income promise high succession crops by 2015 in the spring months. Thus a considerably high supply situation in the 1st is built in conjunction with the U.S. harvest half of the year 2015. The closing stock will be increased again.

Furthermore Commerzbank for sowing 2015 due to the cheap soybean / corn price ratio expected a further increase in the US soybean area at the expense of maize cultivation. This a high harvest is derived again in the autumn 2015.

Next canola prices 2015 are classified in the order of magnitude from €350 per t . Low soy prices as the market leader will prevent that canola prices can not significantly break upwards. On the other hand, the lower rapeseed acreage in the EU's largest production area fall into the weight. EU import requirements will be greater, but less than the global availability of GMOs permitted canola imports will be. The competitive relations of rapeseed, soybean and palm oil will lead to a levelling between inflationary and preissenkenden factors. Soy and palm oil are the leader as a result of volume and value.

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