09.
05.15
12:11

Comparison of the estimates for the EU cereal harvest by 2015

Various estimates of the EU grain harvest by 2015/16

The competition for the possible true estimate of the coming harvest results is in full swing. 5 are selected by the many institutions, which the number of freely available.

The European Commission (EU com) issued to Apr./may month changing their numbers. That agricultural and food Department of the United Nations (FAO) released their forecasts twice in the year, for the first time with date from May 07. The International Grains Council (IGC) periodically draw up estimates for the world's grain harvest to the end of the month (end of April). This also applies to Toepfer international the company Archer Daniel Midlands (ADM) with headquarters in Hamburg, formerly. The umbrella organization of European cereals and animal feed dealers (COCERAL) released estimates to the EU cereals market in several months intervals.

Because each institution their own survey and evaluation methodology applies, the less immediate comparison is interesting, as rather the changes to the previous year when same methodology.

Broad match is that the EU crop by 2015/16 in the order of 15 million metric tons (FAO) smaller will be up to 21 million tons (COCERAL). A decline in the value of-20 million tonnes is estimated in the majority.

The EU wheat crops remain the world's largest supply despite an expected reduction between - 6.3 million tonnes (EU-com) and - 9.6 million tonnes (COCERAL). You must arise on a volume of between 146 to 149 million tonnes.

The remaining grain crops except wheat is estimated between 156.3 million tonnes (COCERAL) and 161.5 million tons (FAO). The deterioration in the year is estimated at varying intensity between the individual forecasters. The EU Commission with - 13.7 million tonnes predicted the highest decrease, directly behind COCERAL and ADM(vormalsToepfer). The FAO is significantly more optimistic with only a decline of 7.5 million tonnes.

The forecasts are at present still with some treasure errors in particular with regard to the Flächenerträge. The income decisive time clamping faces June yet in the months to August.

The first conclusions of a Less affluent EU crop 2015 measured on the record results of the previous year are not to be by the hand. In anticipation of high surplus stocks, the supply situation but not in a critical area will fall.

To illuminate for the assessment of price developments is the global grain market . The EU cereals market is an integral part of the global market with pronounced ex - and import links.

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