02.
01.16
16:24

Corn prices 2016 - arguments by US market experts

Such as the corn prices evolve 2016?   -Forecasts of U.S. experts U.S. market experts with a special wire to the stock exchanges have at the turn to the prospects for the corn market expressed. The US market, which plays a dominant role with a share of more than 35% of the world corn market is primarily in the perspective.

Price estimates for 2016 vary between 3.70 to $4.15 ever bu corn (132 to €148 per t at an exchange rate of $1.10 €). The tenor is usually: to the $3.85 depending on the bu brand or tend to be somewhat higher rates than currently on the stock exchanges are recorded. There are fluctuations in the course of the year.

So one can summarize the individual presented justifications: by 2015 as compared to the previous year's record result sufficient inventories to compensate for (1) despite a weaker harvest may be  emerging bottlenecks exist.

(2) in the case of an exclusion of the unusually high, but real estate Chinese surplus stocks are the stock-to-use-ratios in the skimpy average.

(3) the U.S. crop 2015 fell from results in smaller, enough but in the face of below-average exports for the supply fully Dollar Kurs bedingt due to the dollar rate.

(4) the drought caused significant crop losses EU maize be offset partially by imports of corn and by a high EU wheat crop.

(5) above-average corn exports are so far from the Black Sea region, but whose meaning is slowing.

(6) in the case of non-ideal weather conditions, the Brazilian corn crop should remain in the spring 2016 under the multi-annual average. The weak Brazilian currency "Real" might be beneficial during export.

(7) in Argentina devalued Argentine currency "Peso" will inspire the reduction of export taxes, as well as the approximately 23% the export of maize.  Stocks built on ensuring inflation can be mobilised within the limited framework of the market.  If necessary, an increased cultivation of corn leads to higher offers.  But gone are the sowing date for corn. Floods affect expectations.

(8) the corn imports China should no longer get at sufficient supplies.

(9) in South Africa , El Niño-related no longer exists a drought seen for 30 years. The corn prices have more than doubled. Instead of exports, imports are necessary.

(10) the growing intentions of U.S. farmers for the spring 2016 are estimated to the level of the previous year.  When average earnings expectations, the U.S. crop compared to the previous year's record income should fall slightly. The closing stock should be smaller. 

Broad consensus is that the almost 2-year declining price trends in the maize sector is expected to increase slightly.  

All estimates is shared, that extraordinary events can not be excluded, but not included in the forecasts due to their unpredictability. As far as supply estimates basic guidance.

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