FAO corrects current harvest estimate lower than in the previous month The Agriculture and Food Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has revised its Dec estimate of the global grain and rice market slightly downwards. Weaker results for barley and sorghum were only partially offset by higher corn harvests. In the case of wheat, there have been downward revisions in Brazil and the UK. A record harvest is estimated for the rice sector, which is around 1% above the already high result of the previous year. Year-on-year, the global total harvest is + 0.7% higher than in 2020/21; however, consumption should be 1.7% higher. This results in a stock reduction, which reduces the supply figure from 29.5% to 28.6% final stock for consumption. This is a clear sign of an increasing shortage with corresponding consequences for prices. The FAO estimates the global wheat harvest to be -0.9% lower to just under 770 million t. In contrast, consumption is expected to increase by + 2%. The stocks are reduced.The supply situation is becoming tighter, with the result that stock exchange prices are very sensitive to a high level. Wheat prices on the Paris stock exchange have fallen significantly again after a speculative soaring above the € 300 / t line, but have recently shown an upward trend. These price fluctuations did not appear at the producer level. Trading activities are at a low level. In the global feed grain sector , production of 1.5 billion t is only slightly below the estimated consumption. The decline in inventories that has been observed for several years is continuing. In 2017/18 the stocks lasted for more than 100 days; currently there are only 84 days left. The record high rice production is just enough to cover the increasing rice consumption. If a deficit turns out, the quality wheat market is increasingly used, which is already scarce worldwide.
