17.
09.15
17:07

Different crop estimates for the EU-28

Such as the wheat and corn crops are large in the EU 28?

The estimates of wheat and corn harvests go still far apart. The dry summer months had initially raised fears a considerable reduced harvest. The wheat harvest to the tune of 148 million tonnes was classified accordingly low. This is also the last stand of the European Commission and Coceral.

Meanwhile, it has USDA an estimate in the amount of 154 million tonnes of released. The consulting institution strategy of grains put another one on it and comes up t 155.2 million.  The last year's bumper crop with optimal weather conditions brought it to 156.5 million. The question remains, what has caused the unfavorable summer period actually yield damage, if the results so little differ?

The still upcoming corn crop was still in June to 65 million graded t compared with 75 million tonnes. The younger estimates go back again a bit and appreciate the possible outcome between 57 and 58 million tonnes. Essential argument is the unfavorable weather period during the Kolbenbildungs - and grain filling stage in August.  It will be interesting to see what harvest estimate for a crop threshing is expected to.

Interestingly, the different results in the two types of grain ultimately compensate themselves.  The harvest of 2015 is much lower than in the previous year to approximately 20 million tonnes and is slightly higher than that in the year 2012/13. The different composition of corn and wheat has resulted in that increasingly migrate to wheat in the feeding trough. The necessary EU maize imports increase limited, while more potential for export available is the excess EU wheat.

The distribution among the single use items is highly dependent on the availability of the site, so that full compensation will not take place. The currently highly estimated wheat offer sets limits for EU exports on an international level.

However, recently expressed doubts about the high Russian wheat crops have hopes arise that the export competition will fall but not as strong.  In addition Russian wheat exports has lagged significantly behind the previous year back. The time window for Russian deliveries joins with the use in winter for a few months due to lack of supplies. Import demand.

The big question remains after the value of the currently weak ruble exchange rate and the performance of the euro.

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