15.
11.15
12:36

Distorted supply balance sheets for cereals

Cereals supply balance China and the rest of the world

The latest USDA estimate has led to the world market in cereals caused some confusion and much misunderstanding. The since at least 2 years overdue correction of the Chinese cereals balance sheet was easy in the ongoing series of monthly crop estimates built up. Thus the comparability to previous results underminewas. The designated end results distort the actual location of the supply, if uncorrected for a market evaluation over them.

What happened?  One month to the other you were Chinese overhangincreased holdings in maize retrospectively over three years to a total of 25 million tonnes. The reason of reduced consumption due to high set national minimum prices and declining pig meat production in China are known for a long time.

The higher Chinese end stocks break through in full on the Weltendbestände and indicate that worldwide there is a "superabundant" supply . For pricing, but is an misinterpretation, because the inventories have been added only statistically, actually they were previously available in not exactly known size. Hallmark added the China hardly cereals , in significant quantity exported. So are the additional storage volumes for world trade available. Chinese imports remain stagnant for some time.

For an assessment of global supply situation, it is therefore appropriate, the China effect out targets. As a result, it turns out that the supply situation 2015/16 for the rest of the world excluding China rather worse than in last year.

The global wheat supply situation has become for 2015/16 not significantly improved when the China effect out. Nearly 40% of global wheat surplus stocks store in China and are not available to world trade. Increased wheat harvests are included only for the EU-28, while in the United States the results of wheat were significantly reduced. Reduced estimates for Australia and Argentina, while the El Nino weather event is not yet over. From the Black Sea countries comes the message that the crops were quantitatively well down but to wish the qualities leave. Importing countries with higher quality standards strive for other origins and others from the EU for uncertainty are high wheat exports of the EU amounting to 33.5 million tonnesestimated by the USDA. The EU Commission's 29 million tonnes. While the weak euro exchange rate supporting exports, but market experts doubt whether the amounts estimated by the USDA can be realized. The resolution of this issue could be a balance between increased use of feed wheat and lower corn imports from the EU. The USDA estimates 16 million tons of corn imports for the EU; the European Commission is only 11 million tonnes.  Less wheat exports by more domestic wheat consumption and reduced corn imports will compensate themselves at least in part.

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