A drought threatens Russia?

The role of Russia in the grain market in the WJ 2015/16?

Russia's decision to suspend the export taxes on grain exports amounting to approximately €35 / t now is at the heart of current interest. In July a levy in the amount of €1 per t should take place only then, if the export prices of the brand of $240 the t should go.

The weak rouble allowed the Russian export is still in fall 2014 to world prices to provide grain for importing countries. The impending sale had resulted in significant price increases in the country around the turn of the year. From 1 Feb 2015, the introduced export control prevented a further reduction of the Russian supply situation.

The present repeal of the tax restored the Russian exports in order to occur extremely competitive on the market . By this development, the EU is in 1. Line affected. Previously, the EU exports has benefited from the Russian export restrictions, now looking up in the import tenders.

For the rest and coming economic year EU cereal exporters fear substantial losses in the third country business. All forecasts, the export volumes of the EU be reduced significantly.

The Russian harvest will fail after the projections results in smaller but only marginally reduce the export. After initial problems of drought in the autumn period 2014 and massive fears of insufficient fertilising and plant protection measures as a result of financial difficulties, assessment of the coming Russian harvest abundant rainfall changed in the spring months. That assessment worked up in the latest international forecasts.

Now well-known signs for a not to exclude drought concern the crop output in the coming weeks and months. The experiences from previous years show that significant rainfall deficits in varying proportions occur in the early summer months in 3 to 5 year intervals. Most recently, such harvest reductions occurred in 2010 with 60% and 70% of today's crop potential 2012. At that time, the export bans were issued including shortly after the harvest.

Due to weather conditions affecting the Russian harvest could be the previous forecasts good average supply conditions for the coming marketing year world's challenge. Thus also the price level to a higher level will be to attract, as is now the case. A first correction was completed already.

The Russian problem is only one aspect. Weather-related crop reductions are expected in other parts of the world by the El Nino weather phenomenon.

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