DRV: 1st grain harvest estimate for 2022 at 43.24 million t, just above average and self-sufficiency The German Raiffeisen Association (DRV) estimated German grain production in 2022 at 43.24 million t in its 1st harvest estimate. The result is around +2.5% above the previous year and +1.4% above the 5-year average. A slightly declining cultivation area of -0.4% is offset by the higher yield expectation of +2.9% compared to the previous year. On average, an area yield of 72 dt/ha is estimated. With a share of around 50%, wheat has the greatest influence on the overall result. According to the findings of the Stat. Federal Office increased by +0.4% compared to the previous year. The DRV predicts an increase of + 5.4% to 77 dt/ha for the yield per hectare. Overall, the wheat harvest is expected to increase to 22.62 million t (+5.8% compared to the previous year); in a five-year comparison, only an increase of +1.5% is expected.The second largest type of grain is barley with a share of 25%. The area under cultivation increased by +1.6% compared to the previous year, but the area yield was only +0.1% higher. Total production is estimated at 10.57 million t. In the case of spring barley (brewing barley), a strong production increase of 13.3% is expected after the setbacks of the previous year due to the area under cultivation. The forthcoming maize sowing is to take place on a 1.3% larger area. Expected yields of 95 dt/ha are well below last year's good result of 103.6 dt/ha. Accordingly, the corn harvest is expected to be 7% smaller, but remains above the 5-year average. In contrast, the cultivation of oats is expected to fall by -12.2%. With an estimated yield of 45.2 dt/ha, the total harvest is expected to decrease by -3.7%. Rye cultivation has fallen behind by 5.9%; higher earnings expectations only partially offset this.Although the area for triticale has fallen by -1.2%, yields are expected to be +5.5% higher. The DRV estimate is based on the area surveys of the Stat. Federal Office of December 22, 2021. The DRV estimated the most recent area yields. The forecasts should be interpreted with considerable reservations. In addition to the uncertain weather developments, the scarce and expensive fertilizers have to be taken into account this year, which will have a particularly heavy influence on the yield per hectare. The German grain market is only just close to the self-sufficiency mark. In contrast, the EU-27 continues to have export surpluses.
