DRV: 2nd grain harvest estimate for 2022 at 43.58 million t - 2.2% above average The German Raiffeisen Association (DRV) estimated German grain production in 2022 at 43.58 million t in its 2nd harvest estimate. The result is around +3.3% above the previous year or +2.2% above the 5-year average. With the acreage unchanged compared to the previous year, the higher yield expectation of +3.3% on average is decisive. On average, an area yield of 72.3 dt/ha is estimated. However, the yield estimates fall within a wide range from -8.8% (maize) to +10.8% (oats). With a share of around 50%, wheat has the greatest influence on the overall result. According to the findings of the Stat. Federal Office increased by +0.4% compared to the previous year. The DRV predicts an increase of + 5.8% to 77.3 dt/ha for the yield per hectare. Overall, the wheat harvest is expected to increase to 22.7 million t (+6.2% on the previous year); in a five-year comparison, only an increase of +1.9% is expected.The second largest type of grain is barley with a share of 25%. The area under cultivation was increased by +1.6% compared to the previous year, but the area yield is only expected to be +0.6% higher. A total production of 10.64 million t is forecast. In the case of spring barley (brewing barley), a strong increase in production of 15.2% is expected after the setback of the previous year due to area and yield. The forthcoming maize sowing is to take place on a +6.5% much larger area. Expected yields of 94.5 dt/ha are well below last year's good result of 103.6 dt/ha. Accordingly, the corn harvest is expected to be -2.8% lower, but remains above the 5-year average. In contrast, the cultivation of oats is expected to fall by -12.2%. With an estimated yield of 45.7 dt/ha (+10.8% compared to the previous year), the total harvest is expected to decrease by -2.8%.Rye cultivation has fallen behind by 5.9%; higher earnings expectations of +3.2% only partially offset this. Although the area for triticale fell by -1.2%, higher yields of +5.6% are expected. The harvest is expected to increase by 4.3%. The DRV estimate is based on the area surveys of the Stat. Federal Office of December 22, 2021. The DRV estimated the most recent area yields. The forecasts should be interpreted with reservations. In addition to the uncertain weather developments, the scarce and expensive fertilizers have to be taken into account this year, which will have a particularly heavy influence on the yield per hectare. Earlier harvest results of more than 50 million tons are a thing of the past. The German grain market is only slightly above the self-sufficiency mark.
