- DRV harvest estimate: just under the multi-year average, but below the previous year
In its Aug. 20 issue, the German Raiffeisen Association (DRV) rated the German grain harvest somewhat lower than in the previous month. The reason is the downward revised cultivation areas according to the surveys of the Federal Statistical Office. The returns have been adjusted slightly. The threshing results show a wide range. The May / June drought combined with additional frost caused considerable damage on the less water-retaining locations. The ears of barley were partly numb. Fine graininess is also a problem. The total grain harvest is estimated at 42.87 million t . The result is composed of a stat. Federal Office determined cultivation area in the amount of 6.06 million ha and the DRV yield estimate of an average of 70.7 dt / ha .In a five-year comparison, the 2020 harvest is just -0.2% below the average. This year's harvest is -3.2% lower than in the previous year. With 21.49 million tons, the wheat reaches approx. half of the total harvest. Compared to 2019, the wheat area is -9.2% smaller because the autumn cultivation suffered from the weather. The average yield increases to a slightly above average 75.9 dt / ha . The rye harvest increases by 9.1% to 3.42 million t and is well above the 5-year average. The result is significantly influenced by a reduction in cultivation of -0.4% and the considerable increase in yield of 9.1%. Due to its pronounced drought tolerance, rye can survive phases with little precipitation. The barley harvest is calculated at 11.1 million t or +6.5% over a 5-year average. The acreage is -1.9% smaller .The area yields are 2.9% lower than in the previous year. The winter barley was more severely damaged by the dry weather. The increased cultivation of spring barley was only able to partially compensate for this, despite good yields. Due to the reduced beer consumption, the demand for brewing barley is extremely weak. The goods finally end up in the feed trough. The high expectations of the K. maize harvest were cut. The higher acreage only increased by 1.8 and the expected yields were reduced to 94.5 dt / ha. Compared to the 5-year average, this is an increase of 4.6%. The result could change if areas for silage maize are diverted due to the lack of fodder. Conclusion: The German grain harvest in 2020 is close to the five-year average. The result is -3.2% down on the previous year. However, the worst year 2018 was clearly exceeded. Despite the lower harvest, producer prices have fallen.The background to this is the high harvests in Russia, the leading export country, as the most important competitor in the export business.
