Apr.-2023 DRV: 2nd grain harvest estimate for 2023 at 42.8 million t In its 2nd harvest estimate, the German Raiffeisenverband (DRV) reduced German grain production in 2023 to 42.8 million t compared to the previous month. The result is only around -1.5% below the previous year, but +0.4% above the 5-year average. With a reduced area under cultivation compared to the previous year, the higher expected yield of an average of +0.9% has a partially balancing effect. On average, an area yield of 71.9 dt/ha is estimated. However, the yield estimates range from +12.9% (maize) to -5.7% (oats) compared to the previous year. With a share of around 50% , wheat has the greatest influence on the overall result. According to the findings of the Stat. Federal Office reduced by -2.5% compared to the previous year. In terms of yield per hectare, the DRV only predicts an increase of +0.9% to 76.5 dt/ha. Overall, the wheat harvest is expected to reach 22.15 milliont (-1.6% yoy) increase; in a 5-year comparison only a reduction of -0.6% is expected. The second largest type of grain is winter and spring barley with a share of 25%. The acreage was increased by +1.0% compared to the previous year, but the area yield is expected to be -4.1% lower. A total production of 10.85 million t is forecast. In the case of spring barley (brewing barley), a sharp drop in production of -11.6% is expected after the setback of the previous year due to area (-12.4%) and yield (0.9%). The forthcoming corn sowing is to take place on a -11% significantly smaller area. Expected yields of 94.9 dt/ha are well below last year's poor result of 84.1 dt/ha. Accordingly, the corn harvest is expected to be +0.5% higher, but at -2.8% will remain well below the 5-year average. On the other hand, the cultivation of oats is said to have fallen by -16.8%.With an estimated yield of 44.4 dt/ha (-5.7% compared to the previous year), the total harvest is expected to decrease by -21.6%. Rye cultivation increased by +4.3% ; higher earnings expectations that had been harbored in the previous month have been reduced to zero. The area for triticale has fallen by -6%, which is not compensated for by +4.4% higher yields. The harvest is expected to be 4.6% lower than in the previous year. The DRV estimate is based on the area surveys of the Stat. Federal Office of December 22, 2022. The DRV estimated the most recent area yields . The DRV particularly points out the problems of delayed vegetation development and spring ordering caused by the cold. In addition to the uncertain weather developments, the expensive fertilizers that could have an impact on the area yields have to be taken into account this year. Earlier harvest results of more than 50 million tons are a thing of the past.The German grain market is only slightly above the self-sufficiency mark.
