Australia fears crop damage El-Nino - wheat prices 30% higher than in Chicago
The increasing each week probability of an El Nino weather period in the course of the year 2015 drives wheat prices on the Sydney stock exchange soaring. Which are for the July delivery wheat prices already 31% higher than the comparable prices in Chicago. For the Jan-16 date recorded 28% above Chicago.
Spot prices are significantly higher than the international level. The low inventory inventories are background. Earlier usual advance sales keep tight frame.
The grain sowing is still underway. However, the sowing in certain regions of the eastern provinces as a result of already existing lack of rainfall is delayed. The farmers are drought tolerant barley instead of to grow wheat. An El Nino weather usually brings dryness for Eastern Australia with while the production areas in Western Australia usually less affected.
The harvest takes place End of November to January in regularly. Up to this time the El evolved Nino Wetter with each passing day more.
The previous crop estimates in the amount of nearly 40 million tonnes are probably significantly must be reduced in the near future. Whether the dramatic conditions of a harvest almost halved as in the 2007/08 year occur, is not predictable. The Australian harvest was lower by 20% in the year 2009/10 . The intensity of an El Nino weather is different every time, so predictions are unreliable. One must reckon with the worst.
Australia exports about two-thirds of his harvest on the world markets. The shortages expected be must be saved in the export and hit world trade to a considerable extent to beech. The low inventory stocks exacerbate the problem of supply in increasingly. The usual compensation is very thin.
