EL Nino year 2015 - increased production and harvest risks

High probability for an El Nino year 2015 - follow for agriculture

The signs for an El Nino year 2015 spread. A significant signal are typical characteristics of higher water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean on the Equator line . Higher evaporation rates lead to the diversion of the Equatorial current and more rainfall on the sea, while the country areas of Australia, Indonesia and India remain too dry.

The weather phenomenon is known for good a century and occurs at irregular intervals from 4 to 7 years in appearance. The real focus is the Christmas time - El Nino can freely be translated with "Santa Claus" the name comes from South America, where there are around Christmas, El Nino conditions heavy rain falls on the Pacific coast of South America with floods.

Meanwhile, it has found out that the El Nino effects have an almost worldwide distribution . This is to distinguish between relative to dry and to wet areas. The El Nino-phenomenon varies in terms of its expression. There are strong and toned-down phases, which are forecast to calculate only on a small scale.   

For agriculture depends on it, the respective plants are in production phase . For the northern hemisphere , the crucial harvest period is the months of May to September including. The ultimate yield formation takes place in the early months and involves the harvesting conditions in the later dates.

In Europe and North America is in this time more with greater precipitation weather developments expected, ranging from flooding but only on a limited scale to proportions.

For 2015, the US Wetterbhörde but anticipates greater precipitation and tornadoes in the Midwest of the United States South. In particular the U.S. wheat growing area could be affected.

In Europe , the Atlantic coastal regions of Spain and France with high precipitation are affected. Higher volumes of rain are likely in the Mediterranean.

In South America high amounts of precipitation from the Pacific Ocean on the coast lands of Chile come to Peru. After overcoming the Andes, especially Argentina and the southern part of Brazil with above-average amounts of rain will get to do. In these areas, the sowing of wheat, corn and soy could be challenged if excessive rainfall. Remain that can water supply during moderate weather even beneficial impact.

However, is to be expected under the continental conditions Russia rather warmer and dry phases.  

The greatest negative impact of drought are however in the East of Australia's grain production to expect, whose seed may takes place in the months up to June. Missing water can cause period of growth until the harvest in November/December 2015 substantial crop failures, as the past has shown several times.

In India is the much-needed monsoon rain delayed and reduced affect plant growth. The high State grain stocks are then urgently needed.

Be considered in Indonesia is the palm oil production by drought significantly affected.

One must fear significant Niederschlagsdefizite in the North of South America . The northeastern part of Brazil is must come out regularly to low rainfall.  In the Sahel zone of Africa , the water conditions are still scarce as already exists, while on the Mediterranean North Africa rather better rainfall conditions are expected.

The year 2015/16 carries significantly greater production and harvest risks as the past year 2014/15. The previously good average harvest forecasts provided to a severe test.

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