EU cereal crops: largely matching reduction earlier forecasts

Estimates for the EU cereal crops wheat and corn.

The mounting estimates to 2015 cereal harvest in the EU show relatively high matches. The differences are in the treasure error range. A certain exception is the result of the umbrella organization of the farmer and cooperative associations (COPA-COGECA) with an estimate at the lower end of the range.  

Recent estimates of wheat and k-maize crops in the EU-28

Following the development of the estimation results for several months, one more thing in common is visible. The original numbers have been reduced significantly with increasing rapprochement with the harvest. Under the impression of a mild winter and a favourable development of the spring, a far above-average harvest was expected. However, was it also already at the time aware, that the repetition of the record levels of last year is unlikely.

The recent development of the unfavourable weather developments in many parts of Europe resulted in quickly because of disillusionment, that high Flächenerträge are necessary for a good harvest. The level of earnings but decides to essential parts of the grain filling stage and under (un) favourable harvest conditions, whose Vorhersehbarkeit is possible until the last few weeks or month hardly with sufficient accuracy.

While the wheat crop already to a greater extent in France has set and in this country is imminent, is at the K-corn harvest still considerable risks can be expected. With a share of about 20%, not the meaning such as in the United States with approximately 80% has however the corn in Europe.

 The crucial pollination and piston education phase begins the end of July. The focus is in August. Already, vast tracts of land have suffered from the lack of rainfall of the past weeks and months. More dry spells are cannot be ruled out. In that regard, corn harvest estimates are again subject to strong to make.

The bandwidth of grain prices is only even slightly influenced by the final result of the EU grain harvest.  To the world market conditions play a significant role. The future supply situation in the global grain market is still critical to assess given the remaining corn crops. The El Niño weather phenomenon developed its full strength, usually only in the autumn-winter without ultimately being able to predict what intensity is expected this year. In any case, some corrections to the harvest forecasts will be in Australia and Argentina to make.

For the European cereal prices , the euro exchange rate could once again gaining in importance. Given the unsatisfactory interim results in the Greece conflict, a good economy and rising interest rates in the United States, a further decline of the euro to dollar parity level can not be excluded. A further lower euro will accelerate EU cereal exports and may provide appropriate price pressures. It is decisively on the competition situation in the exporting countries on the Black Sea. Essential EU maize imports will be correspondingly more expensive.