EU cereal harvest is estimated at 317 million tonnes

EU Commission with new grain estimation

The EU Commission estimates according to latest findings the harvest of the EU-28 to 317 million tonnes (previous year t 302 million). The decisive contribution comes from the wheat with a share of 153 million tons, about 10 million tons more than in the previous year. The corn harvest of grains of is estimated at 6 million tonnes higher. All other grain species reach just the previous year results.

 The grain surface to 1 million ha larger failed. The yield has risen from 53 to 54 dt / ha. The regional income differences range from top income on good sites about 100 dt / ha, but also covered 30 dt / ha in the most disadvantaged regions of Spain.

The good results in the new Member States in particular with focus in the South-East with the unreliable continental climate are striking. Once sufficient rainfall had fallen this year, which have resulted in high crops in Romania and Bulgaria, as well as adjacent areas.

From the balance sheet data, not the quality problems can be read out. France in particular, but also other countries complain about bad qualities of wheat. Where quality wheat is high worldwide demand, while on the other hand feed grain abundant will be available on the market.

The grain supply of the EU consists of a higher initial stock and a grain import lower estimated up to 4 million tonnes in addition to the exceptionally good harvest also to 4 million tonnes.  

The proportion of grain for direct human consumption with 65.5 million tons remains nearly constant on the usage page .  The food consumption should rise by 5 million tons to 170 million tonnes. The additional amount is due less to increasing livestock production as from the displacement by imported goods.  Industrial consumption will increase by approximately  1 million tonnes estimated, including bioethanol with an increase of 0.5 million tonnes.

The third country export lower to 9 million tons is considered lower despite favourable euro exchange rate. The justification is seen in the increasing competition from the Black Sea region, which currently temporarily while has worn something, but maybe momentum will resume.

The closing stock should nearly 51 million. t grow. Measured in consumption accounted for 18%, a value was no longer reached 10 years back. Thus, the EU to unforeseen market interference is exceptionally well taken care.

The prevailing low price level is not alone however from the EU determined, but a consequence of the favourable global grain supply is above average in the year 2014/15 good harvests in almost all major production areas in the world cause in connection with high initial stocks a significant pressure. The European price level moves in the upper mid-range, if one assumes from the United States and the Black Sea region.

The price decline to be observed for the crop seems to have come to an end. However, the current price recovery will keep within limits. Wheat prices on the Paris stock exchange between 160 to 170 €/ t brand fit according to the market rules to the estimated supply situation in this financial year. The euro exchange rate could still play a role.

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