Estimates the EU cereal crops by 2015 by 8.5% lower than in the previous year, but on average
The EU cereals crop 2014/15 projects with 329 million tons far beyond past performance and current estimates. Almost ideal weather conditions during the growing season have ensured maximum yields were responsible.
A such record stands for 2015/16 not in the House. As in previous first estimates, numbers from 310 to 320 million tonnes made the rounds, forecasts end of July 2015 to the mark of 300 million tonnes of concentrate. While the estimate of the European farmers Association (COPA) with 296 million tons at its lowest and that of the International Grains Council (IGC) with 306 million are the highest. The latest forecast of the European Commission was shortened to 301 million tonnes.
The ultimate cause of the reduction in the estimates is the unfavorable weather period in the months of May / June 2015 in large parts of Central Europe. The precipitation deficit has significantly diminished the grain formation. While the early ripening barley in good average has completed significant impairment in the wheat and maize are expected. However, is still a more than average crop by 2015/16 assume.
One is partially offset around 25 million t lower EU crop this year by a 12 million t higher initial stock that was overshadowed from the previous year. The consumption by 2015/16 increases only slightly. The export should however to rd. 5 million to 40 million tonnes tonnes. The final stocks are reduced by more 7.5 million tonnes compared to the opening balance. Thus the supply balance at a lower level would be restored.
For the further development of the supply , it's much on the actual output of the crop, the opportunities in the course of the year with the export business in competition with the Black Sea countries and depending on the euro exchange rate and the price formation at the international level.
The price level of this year is determined by the global supply situation, with a growing importance to the leading exporting countries with the United States, European Union and the countries of the Black Sea. 40% of global cereal reserves have been established in China, are available for the import need not be available. More so, it's on the export potential of the exporters. But is lower by 11%, compared to the total world stock with a decline of only 2%.
