EU COM updates harvest estimate for 2024/25
The EU Commission (EU COM) has updated its harvest estimate for the 2024/25 grain year in its monthly edition at the end of May 2024. However, the changes compared to the previous month are minimal.
The 2024 harvest is estimated at 278 million tons. The calculations are based on an unchanged area under cultivation of 50.33 million hectares and a slightly higher yield expectation of 5.5 t/ha. This means that the result is +3.1 % above the previous year and roughly above the multi-year average.
At 127 million tons, the wheat harvest is down on the previous year (132.5 million tons) due to acreage. Barley production, on the other hand, is expected to exceed the previous year's figure at 53.87 million tons. Maize is also expected to be higher at 68.55 million tons. Rye is expected to yield 7.58 million tons and triticale 10.83 million tons.
On the consumption side, around 257.14 million tons are estimated. The use for human consumption remains unchanged at 56.3 million tons. Feed consumption is estimated to remain unchanged at 156.85 million tons. Exports are expected to rise to 47.36 million tons, of which wheat exports alone account for around 31.5 million tons. On the import side, only 27.6 million tons are expected, with maize imports accounting for 17.4 million tons and bread wheat imports for 8.1 million tons.
At the end of the marketing year, final stocks are expected to rise to 50.84 million tons. The supply figure is calculated at 19.8% final stocks to consumption, which is in line with the 5-year average.
