EU Commission: cereal balance sheet 2014/15 with rising end stocks

EU Commission estimated a higher harvest

In their recent short term prognosis the Commission estimates grain harvest 2014/15 to approximately 1.5 million tonnes higher the EU than in the previous year. Which are crucial for the result 3.4% larger acreage, while the average yield was placed slightly below last year's figure of 5.31 t / ha. Wheat with 145 million tonnes and 70 million tonnes of maize are the main pillars of the EU cereals crop. Barley falls back with 55.7 million tonnes, significantly compared to previous years.

The EU cereals balance is positive. Moderately declining imports and higher initial stocks result in a total range of about 351 million t. with the increase in harvest (previous year 348 million tonnes).

A grain use facing the advance estimates a 3.3% higher food consumption and a slight increase industry consumption. The use for human consumption and seed changes for years only in very narrow lanes.

The export to reach 32.5 million tonnes, so much lower than the previous year's result with 42.1 million tons.

At the end of the year, approximately 40 million tonnes in the next year will be transferred according to current data. This is a soothing stock increase by nearly 8 million compared to the previous year.

With these figures, the EU cereals balance sheet as well will be classified. Price developments this means low rates initially, if not by the world market new impulses, which could further stimulate in particular the EU export.

The strongest competition for the EU comes from the Black Sea region with cheap offers. For liquidity reasons, the Ukrainian sales readiness currently to be observed is relatively high. Whether the behaviors in the face of high rates of inflation persists, we'll need to wait yet. The hour of rising EU exports later in the autumn of 2014 will come when the Black Sea suppliers with their export activities are households.  

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