EU Commission estimate crop 2016/17

EU Commission corrected grain harvest 2016/17 - less export?

In its monthly update of the estimates of the supply balance with cereals in the EU the European Commission (EU-com) has estimated 2016/17 slightly higher the upcoming crop at approximately 310 million tonnes .  However, should the upcoming crop have lower enur little as in the previous year.

The result for wheat was estimated at nearly 152 million tonnes less than In the previous year about 8 million t. Triticale drops to approximately 1.5 million tons due to reduced acreage. For the upcoming maize harvest to 7 million tonnes as a result of higher yields compared to the weak previous year should have been better. The barley harvest and the other grains is expected more each around 1 million tonnes.

The agro-meteorological Institute of EU MARS has higher average income calculated on the basis of climate data by April 20, 2016, which are incorporated in the EU com estimate the latest estimate of the International Grains Council (IGC) comes in terms of production amounts to similar results.

The EU Commission estimates a slight increase as a result of the increase in demand from the food sector on the usage page .

Surprisingly, it fails however to 3.5 million tonnes of reduced exports to third countries . Given the considerable crop damage in the Black Sea countries as a result of the drought problems in the autumn sowing is expected in market circles that exports from this area be taken back. It can only benefit the EU as the most important competitor in the importing North African Mediterranean countries.  

The IGC has also reset the third country exports, moves but on a significantly higher level of 46 million tonnes compared to the EU-com estimate of 41 million tonnes.

According to the current closing stock 2016/17 in the EU should increase again slightly and thus again improving the upcoming supply situation. The wäSignal for falling prices.

The estimation results are however on the reservation of the recent cold snap in many parts of the EU. The advantage of vegetation due to the mild winter and early spring is exhausted. Although there is a low disease pressure, but the stocks are stuck in their development. To what extent this income impairment can be expected, is currently not sufficiently precise to predict.

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