EU Commission estimated 2015 on 151 Mio.t - wheat harvest higher than other estimates
The mild winters with low Dewinterizing damage prompted the EU Commission to an estimate of the coming wheat crop in the the magnitude of 150.8 million tonnes EU. Last year, approximately 157 million tons were harvested in very favourable weather conditions. The EU is the world's largest wheat producer ahead of China with 125 million tonnes. Only Russia followed with 105 million tonnes, if it's a good year.
The EU forecast is well above the values of other institutions.
The International Grains Council (IGC) has estimated the EU wheat crop on rd 145 million tonnes. The main reason was the adoption of average income compared to the peak performance of the previous year.
The food and Agriculture Organization FAO of the United Nations has the EU wheat crop to 147 million tonnes in its most recent estimate classified. Larger crop areas and average earnings assumptions led to this result.
The lowest are the predictions of the Australian Department of agriculture (ABARES) with 143 million tonnes EU wheat.
The European Commission expects a slightly lower acreage in the size of 26.6 million hectares, estimates the yield per hectare but only slightly lower than in the current record year off at 5.88 t / ha. However, the yield-critical period of May/June 2015 should talk to a significant word.
The wheat export to go back to 28 million tonnes according to the European Commission. This is highly unusual given the foreseeable weak bid from the Black Sea region and the weak euro exchange rate.
Stagnating consumption, the closing stock rises so after the Commission invoice to 19.5 million tonnes, as least in the year 2009/10.
EU barley crop is estimated by the EU Commission to 64.8 million tonnes , 1.1 million tonnes higher than in the previous year. A higher acreage over 2.2 million ha in conjunction with high yield assumptions provides the basis for the prediction.
Wheat prices on the Paris stock exchange have remained unimpressed by the EU forecast. Wheat prices followed the increasing requirements from Chicago on the order of €187 per t. On the Chicago Stock Exchange seems to be a soil formation just below the $5 per bushel brand to emerge. The recent crash of the euro exchange rate of 1.13 on $1.08 € is expected to again inspire the European grain exports and stabilise prices.
