Expected positive supply balance of the EU cereals market by 2015/16 – but still high Treasury risks
In the late winter issue of appearing three times in the year "short term Outlook" of the European Commission, the incoming EU grain supply is accounted for by 2015/16.
The extrapolation of the individual balance sheet items is carried out on the revenue side, with the help of acreage and yield assumptions for each individual fruit. Trends - be based on the uses side of the balance sheet supplements to livestock data -.
Goes for the coming marketing year 2015/16 the Commission from one of initial stock amounting to 50 million tonnes (previous year 35 million tonnes) from.
The EU harvest is on 309 million tonnes (previous year 326.8 million tonnes) appreciated. This one will be applied to 1 million ha less acreage and a low 3.5% average yield. The EU Commission also under - how many other treasure institutions - that a repeat of above-average weather conditions for the crop is not likely in 2015.
On the import side is a volume of around 14 million tonnes (previous year 13 million t) estimated. 8.5 million tons of accounted for maize imports and 5 million tonnes of quality wheat imports.
On the supply side of the balance sheet from initial inventory, harvesting and imports stand together a lot of 373 million tonnes (previous year 374 million metric tons). Taking into account the estimation error, you can determine that the offer amounts to the previous year only slightly vary, where the reduced harvests by the high initial data about compensates for.
The consumption for human consumption, the feed needed for livestock, the other use for industrial purposes, and seed with the same figures as the previous year in the amount is on the uses side by 278 million tons.
The export by 2015/16 is on nearly 40 Mio.t (previous year 44.3 million tonnes) prized.
The net result delivers an closing stock amounting to 53 million tonnes and that 3 million tons more than the opening balance.
Restocking signals usually to compensate for an improved supply situation, the potential risks and estimation error is capable. However, + 3 million tonnes in the face of the uncertainties are still relatively little to the conclusion to draw, that a better supply situation 2015 / 16 compared to expected is definitely the previous year.
The classification of the supply situation of the year provides the basis for the assessment of expected pricelevels. Should verify the crop estimate of the European Commission, by 2015/16 is a little modified price level in the year.
However the supply of the other world market plays with a very crucial role. In particular the euro could gain a special meaning this year. Since the EU in the cereals sector is predominantly on the export side, is a persistently weak euro more than the previously estimated exports contribute with the result that the EU end stocks could be significantly lower. This could enable the soothing supply estimate a price alarm.
Quotes on the stock exchanges signal stable ratesfor the time being for the rear dates for the year 2015 relative. But there will be RST corrections in relation to the improvement of the knowledge.
