EU Commission increases crop estimate

New EU cereals market estimate 2015/16 - more wheat, but to little corn in the recent harvest estimate of Oct. 29, 2015 is the EU Commission on a total harvest in the EU by 308,3 million tonnes. The biggest result of the EU amounted to 329 million tonnes in the previous year.  The result of the harvest has two faces. The wheat harvest 2015 exceeds the previous year to approximately 1 million tonnes, but the numbers for the remaining grain is 22 million t lowerwith 157.6 million tonnes. The extremely weak EU maize crop, which is classified by 20 to 25% lower has a decisive share.  

The unexpectedly good wheat harvests in France, Germany and the United Kingdom were decisive, while the corn crops in southern France and in the South-Eastern European countries provided significant Minderbeträge as a result of the drought in the summer months.  

Unchanged domestic consumption and reduced export figures there is a slight destocking on a high level of 44.5 million tonnes. In previous years, the closing stock ranged from 30 to 35 million tonnes.

The extremely weak EU maize crop requires above-average high import volumes of this special cereal, which must be paid dearly for a weak euro. The resultant increase in corn price could lead to an increased use of wheat in domestic and support also the EU wheat prices.

The low euro exchange rate could bring even more momentum in the export , so that less high fail the final stocks at the end of the marketing year 2015/16.  There are already signs of underselling Russian export prices by European exporters.

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