EU Commission increases grain estimation

EU Commission increases crop estimate 2015

In its monthly update of crop forecasts, the Commission has made an update of its crop estimate. The EU total harvest approximately 3 million tonnes higher nearly 310 million tonnes estimated.

However, it remains that the record results of the previous year by far is not obtained with 329 million.

The wheat harvest is considered largely unchanged. Low increases of 1 million tonnes is estimated in the barley. Significantly higher than previously estimated, the maize harvest with an increase of 2 million tons to fail. Only minor changes have been made at the other crop species.

For the Höherschätzung are the subordinate Flächenerträge, performing better than in the past due to the seed stand to significantly.

No changes can be found in the sum on the usage page . Changes in some areas cancel each other. The high exports of 40 million tonnes will be confirmed again.

The overlay stocks will increase according to the calculations of the European Commission from 47 to 51 million tons.  Thus arises a marginal improvement in the supply situation, which is likely but it is hardly a greater importance of price.

The year 2015/16 is characterized by high initial stocks and a good harvest, which is above the average of recent years.  The combination of these two factors should lead to some price pressure due to competition from the warehouse during the harvest period. It is however crucial that, as successively harvests of part of occur quickly.

The forward rate on the Paris stock exchange show again rising trends over the critical mark of €180 per t. This level is also with slightly rising tendency also for the suspended delivery dates of the marketing year.

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