European Commission: future grain prices on average higher than in past
The Commission notes a growth rate of 1% per year on average in their review of the Last 10 years cereal production . The development continued strong uctuations of yield in single years. When little modified area and tends to be a higher proportion of wheat hectare have been the decisive factors.
The domestic consumption of grain on average only rose by 0.35% per year. The rising food consumption and industrial consumption has significant influence. The need for direct human consumption is stagnating.
The increased exportsare volatile in single years. Imports structurally missing quantities of grain maize, durum, oats, etc. have remained largely constant average .
The price fluctuations in the past 10 years amounted to over 100% . Lowest wheat prices with €120 per t got it in 2005 and 2009, the highest prices were found in 2012 with more than €240 per t.
In the current market situation of the year 2015/16 , average rates between 170 and €180 per t wheat are observed. An above-average EU wheat crop will be rolled back by an extremely weak corn harvest on a still good average level.
The EU Commission estimates an increasing grain production with average growth rates at 0.5% per year in the medium-term preview by the year 2025 . The Erntemittel is located in the range between 310 to 320 million tonnes .
Increases the domestic uses are for two years, 2016 and 2017 more estimated, there should be no significant changes for the following years.
In the foreign trade of grain the average import return only slightly, because certain types of grain can be produced in this country not sufficiently. On the export side, rising export volumes between 30 and 40 million tonnes is estimated.
The future grain prices should move in the average of the years above of previous multi-year means on or slightly above the 180 €/ t wheat brand . The methodologically limited "steadily" represented price history should not over it fool, that there will be fluctuations in year-specific, their influencing factors of global nature are and will be potentially just as big as in the past.
