EU Commission updated cereal balance sheet

European Commission Jan-2016: high wheat harvest - poor maize yields - adequate supply situation

The Commission has updated its supply balance for cereals. The corrections are down for some types of grain but more clearly than they originally suspected.

First, the total harvest at 306,5 million tonnes new has been ordered. Last year's record earnings to around 21 million tonnes higher.  The result of harvest wheat is estimated around at around 158 million tonnes, far above the average of recent years. The corn harvest to just 56.2 million was again poor  classified t.  The result of the previous year amounted to just under 78 million tonnes. Also at the rye has been corrected with 7.4 million tonnes again down.

The results must be assessed against the background of low rainfall activity in the early summer of 2015. The wheat was of little affected, whereas maize suffered considerable loss of earnings. The rye growing on poor sites has been also significant impairments.

On the consumption page assuming increased 283 million tonnes. 173 million tonnes is estimated in the animal feed sector. For human consumption, 65.7 million tonnes are used unchanged. There is little change in the other sectors.

The grain export is estimated to 8 million tonnes lower at only 44 million tonnes.  About 30 million tons are wheat in the course of the year running by 2015/16. The sales business of the EU with third countries is held by low-cost competition from the Black Sea States within limits despite low euro rate. In the Gegenzuge, the weak domestic harvest in maize must be partially offset by approximately 2 million tons of higher imports . The supply deficit in maize is significantly offset by the reduction of inventories of 9.3 million tonnes and an increase of 2 million tons wheat consumption in the food sector.  

The overlay amounts to approximately 3.5 million tonnes to 42.5 million tons should be lower at the end of the marketing year.  While stock levels at the wheat by 5 million tonnes increase while the final inventories of corn and rye to around 10 million tonnes.  Measured supply reference number is located on previous years 'stock to use ratio"with 15% in the upper midfield.

The good supply situation will ensure that greater price level shifts for the rest of the financial year are not expected. But without price fluctuations , it will not go. The risk to Dewinterizing damage is higher to quote this year given the low winter hardiness of plants. The rumor mill to the Russian export tax is making waves. The ongoing drought in the North African Maghreb States provides reason for increased imports, not least from the EU. Now the upcoming wheat harvest 2016 with something over 700 million tons is classified worldwide significantly lower.  The La Niña weather event follows after an El Niño weather period in the summer of 2016, with a high probability.

The risk range is certainly bigger.

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