Wheat prices 2016 - little change in intermediate-level forecast U.S. market experts
Since the year 2012 wheat prices between 30% and 40% have fallen. 2015 annual average gave the quotes by 15%. It reached the valley floor and can expect for the year 2016 with a price recovery?
Leading U.S. market experts from science and practice with close connections to the exchanges have given their assessments at the beginning of the year. The reasons provided varied with regard to its priorities. The sum of these arguments is interesting.
First pointed out the high surplus stocks following two good harvests in locked consumption growth. Closing stock relative are 230 million tonnes or 31% of consumption above the multi-annual average of 190 million tonnes and 26.5% respectively.
That two-year stock increasing by about 34 million tonnes due to China's supply policy to more than 22 million tonnes, is only on the edge noted. China is not a significant exporter of wheat for the world market, but imports around 3 to 5 million tonnes. The Chinese surplus stocks are limited in this respect.
In the United States a large end inventory builds 2015/16 by 5 million to 25 million tonnes. A U.S. crop of 56 million tonnes of this quantity presses violently on the courses. The main reason is the high dollar making globally competitive little U.S. wheat.
At world level, the two above-average wheat harvests by 2015 in the EU and in Russia fall heavily in the weight. A weak euro and a still-weaker Ruble rate leads to far lower averages export prices.
The weak harvests in Australia, Argentina, India, and some smaller countries are on the other. Australia's exports slow, India must instead of export to now introduce wheat.
Wheat future prices 2016 settle the US market experts mainly at the level of 5-$5.30 / bu or 170 to €180 / t. A few experts predict prices slightly below the $5 / bu brand. The reasons:-high surplus stocks buffers possible future harvest loss off.
- Wheat acreage to go back. The low prices have contributed to in the United States. In Russia and the Ukraine are not appointed dryness due to the 15% of the planned areas. Summer crops produce lower yields.
-Higher-than-average Dewinterizing damage still unknown are expected in Eastern Europe. The ultimate winter section is still in the United States.
-In the summer, the La Niña weather phenomenon is expected, following Niño weather with quite regularly-Ness on the El. Impairment of Flächenerträge are to be expected.
-Comparatively lower wheat to corn prices make for a larger consumption as feed grain.
-With rising world population , higher amounts of wheat for immediate human consumption are needed.
-More weather-related, political and currency-related effects are excluded, are hardly predictable.
The price forecasts are the basic guidelines.
