Falling Ruble rate ensures Eddy on agricultural markets

Rubles: the Russian currency falls into the external value to 70% in one month - implications for international agricultural trade and agricultural prices

At a pace that is beschleunigendem has the Russian currency by more than 70% against the euro in value lost. Could get even in early October a Euro 50 rubles for, there are now approximately 85 rubles, these relations show a rising trend. Yet the beginning of 2014 was 45 rubles for one euro.

The Western economic sanctions and the fall of crude oil prices were the final trigger for the decline of the Russian currency. The bankruptcy is on your doorstep.

The Russian Central Bank interest rates from 10% to 17% raised, to prevent the flow of Russian money. It has shown no effect. Obviously, confidence in State institutions is slightly pronounced.   

The origin of value decline not only was a matter of Western sanctions against Russia or the price decline in the crude oil as Russia's main source of income, but the years lack dynamism of development of the Russian economy. Little innovation, outdated technology, little progress, command structures after old planned economy-style its formative characteristics.

The carrying Russian consumers with average inflation rates of over 10% and rising.

The conditions are particularly critical for the agricultural and food sector. Finishing products such as meat and milk are considerably more expensive by the Russian import ban. Given earlier self catering Rade between 65% and 80% were dependent on the low-priced import of agricultural surplus regions. Replacements from less powerful export States rose in three ways: first the higher transport costs, then the demand rising purchase prices in the countries of origin, and finally slowly but surely dwindling purchasing power of the Russian currency.

The increasing failure of a major importing country imports of refined products such as milk and meat reached each other almost all export-oriented States the complex link of market relations . EU prices have already fallen to a low level, now starts a clear downward trend in the United States. The American export activities encounter increased competition from other exporting countries, can no longer deduct their goods imposed in Russia.

On the other hand, are by the decline of the ruble Russian agricultural exports extremely low-cost. It fired the grain export with the result that domestic goods threatened to be scarce. Bread prices rose by up to 10%.

An weak harvest expected 2015 makes one fear more shortages. Meanwhile, the Government has pulled a first emergency brake. Grain exports are approved only from public intervention warehouses. The number of the receiving countries is limited to a few traditional buyers of Russian grain in the North African Mediterranean countries. In this way the supply in the country should be secured.

Global stock markets, wheat prices responded with a significant increase of in prices. The Russian export cuts are for the international grain trade of an essential nature. However, the unpredictability of the political decisions in Russia produces high risks in marketing.

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