FAO: World grain harvest (excl. rice) below previous year, but "still comfortable"
In its latest June 2024 edition, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimates the world grain harvest (excluding rice) at 2,311 million tons (previous year: 2,317 million tons). Global consumption is estimated at 2,319.6 million tons. (2023/24: 2,311 million tons). The shortfall will be covered by reducing stocks.
The FAO estimates the global wheat harvest at 786.7 million tons, just below the previous year's level. The recent freak weather conditions have increased uncertainty about global wheat production. Consumption is reduced to 794 million tons (previous year 800 million tons). Wheat stocks fall to their lowest level since 2021/22 at 306 million t. Stocks in the major exporting countries are shrinking even more significantly. As a result, global trade in wheat will decline again for the 3rd year in a row.
The global rice harvest and consumption are estimated to be higher. The supply situation is considered to be much more favorable and could - with appropriate compensation - partially relieve the wheat market.
At 1,524.6 million tons, coarse grain production with a focus on maize will also not quite reach the previous year's level. The FAO estimates consumption at 1,525.6 million tons. As a result, there should be little change in supply. However, the basis for the estimates is still uncertain.
