FAO corrects previous estimates of the 2022/23 world grain harvest In its April 2023 issue, the FAO estimates the world grain supply for 2022/23 to be slightly higher than in the previous year. The production of grain without rice is estimated at 2,261 million t (previous year 2,287 million t). However, grain consumption should only amount to 2,259 million t (previous year 2,277 million t) due to the declining use of feed. This results in an almost unchanged ending stock of 656 million t. The number of supplies is calculated as 29% of the ending inventory for consumption and is only slightly above the previous year's figure of 28.8%. The supply situation in the wheat sector is characterized by a harvest that is around 2.4% higher at 796 million tons and increasing consumption at 780 million tons. The background is high harvests in Russia and Australia. The final stock is calculated at a slightly increased 309 million t. For the rice market, the FAO assumes that the supply situation will change insignificantly in the event of a lower harvest and consumption. The FAO estimates the production of feed grain with a focus on maize at 1,464 million t or approx.3% lower than last year. Consumption falls to 1,479 million t (previous year 1,504 million t). This results in a falling end stock of 346 million t or 22.4% of consumption (previous year 24.5%). The FAO thus also confirms a fundamentally good average supply situation in 2022/23. The high price level in 2022 is therefore primarily due to the delivery risks and supply fears as a result of the Ukraine war . If there is sufficient supply, the most recent price development is based on a less threatened security of supply. The FAO outlook for the coming 2023 harvest provides an expected result for wheat of 786 million tons, around 1.25% below the previous year. Lower production is foreseen in Russia and Ukraine; the drought will also lead to significant restrictions in the Magreb states of North Africa. Too little rainfall in the southern EU Member States limits harvest expectations in the EU-27. For Asian countries, wheat harvests are estimated at 5-year averages. In the USA, the onset of rain has mitigated the drought damage.Corn production in the southern hemisphere will be determined by the expected record harvest in Brazil. Favorable weather conditions also indicate a good result in South Africa. In Argentina, on the other hand, a significant drop in production is expected due to the drought. No statements have yet been made for the remaining spring cereals to be planted in the northern part of the world.
