Febr. 2022: FAO corrects world grain supply 2021/22 The latest FAO estimate for the supply situation on the world grain/rice market 2021/22 delivered a small improvement in production by around 2 million tonnes or +0.8% more than the previous year. The increase in consumption is rated 1.5% higher. The ending stocks are correspondingly lower. The number of supplies is calculated as 28.7% of the end-of-life for consumption (previous year 29.4%) or is sufficient for 107 days (previous year 109 days). The global wheat market was cut to 775 million t production and 776 million t consumption . The ending stocks changed only slightly to 287.5 million t or 36.6% ending stock to consumption. The range of inventories is almost unchanged at 135 days. Coarse grain production is estimated at around 1,500 million t and consumption at 1,510 million t. This means that the ending stocks are classified as significantly lower and only last for 84 days (previous year: 86 days).The increase in rice production lagged somewhat behind the increase in consumption. The inventories change only slightly and are sufficient for around 132 days. Most recent corrections have been in higher harvests in Argentina, Australia, Russia and Ukraine. On the other hand, the corn harvests in Africa and the USA as well as Brazil were reduced. The prospects for the 2022 harvest are rated relatively good in the northern hemisphere due to the increased acreage and a good seed stock over the winter period to date. However, there are still risks from winter damage because the winter seeds are not very hardy to frost. In South America, the drought in some regions is dampening harvest expectations for corn. The yields per hectare to be expected in 2022 are under pressure from fertilizers that are available in limited supply worldwide and are above average.Above-average yields per hectare are not to be expected. Depending on the weather development in the decisive yield phases, a below-average harvest could definitely be brought in in 2022.
