08.
06.15
09:25

FAO estimates cereal harvest by 2015/16 higher than in the previous month

FAO estimated world grain harvest by 2015/16 higher than a month ago, remains ahead of previous forecasts of USDA and IGC

In the recent may issue of the monthly estimates of the world grain market, the food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) comes) on larger numbers than a month ago. Thus, the FAO remains competitive treasure institutions USDA and IGC.

The results suggest that expects the FAO now with a total crop except rice in the magnitude of 2,023 million tonnes, remains significantly higher than the forecast results of USDA with 1,996 million tonnes. 2,016 million tonnes are at FAO on the consumption side, while the USDA anticipates 1,997 million tonnes.

Relatively close together for the world wheat harvest estimates range

End stocks are unusually high level in all cases on one for years. The IGC with 426 million tonnes or  the USDA with 427.7 million tonnes not far apart.  The FAO calculates a value of 465 million tonnes with their method.

There any institution an own survey and evaluation method used a direct comparability of the results is not useful. Is meaningful to compare the changes in direction and magnitude.

Estimates of the world grain harvest (without rice) by 2015/16.  (Changes to the previous year)

In million t

USDA by May 12, 2015

FAO by June 4, 2015

IGC by the 28 may 2015

Production

1,996 (- 15)

2,023 (- 33)

1,968 (- 43)
Dar. Wheat

719    (-7)

723    (-6)

715    (-6)

Consumption

1.997 (+14)

2,016 (+ 21)

1,981 (+ 4)

Closing stock

428 (- 1)

465     (-5)

426 (- 14)

Stock to use ratio

21.4% (- 0.2)

23,1 %  (+0,1)

21,5 % (   -0,4)

All 3 institutions assume a reduction of the harvest rate for the previous year but in varying degrees. The IGC expects a significant decline of more than 2% with the largest declines in harvest. The FAO estimates the upcoming harvest by around 1.5% lower and the USDA anticipates 0.75%... 

In the smaller wheat crop estimate the changes of 1 million tonnes are close, the level is different.

In all cases a rising trend of consumption is estimated. FAO increased the increase by around 1%. The USDA sees only an increase of 0.7% and the IGC is only 0.2%. The long-term average consumption increases are not subordinate in all cases. Essential of Declaration of should the low growth rate of the global livestock his change of closing stock remains the exception of the IGC in the scope of the treasure bug er. Despite the existing differences in the baseline, all 3 institutions come largely in accordance to an assessment of the supply situation that closely similar to that of the previous year. The long-standing average value of 20.3% of the final consumption is exceeded. Currently is a good average supply situation forecast...

The impact of recent and expected weather developments in the central areas of the United States, Europe, India and the Black Sea region will lead to corrections.  In particular, the inclusion of the El Nino weather will play a role. On June 12, 2015, the second crop forecast of the USDA appears.

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