FAO estimates grain harvest including rice only slightly below previous year In its latest July issue, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimates the global grain harvest including rice to be around 18 million tonnes lower than in the previous year. However, consumption is only expected to fall slightly by 2 million t . The shortfall is covered from inventories, which are correspondingly lower. The supply figure falls from 30.7 to 29.8% ending stock to consumption. The range is 111 days (previous year 112 days). Changes in global crop estimates 2022/23 from various institutions.
| World grain without rice | USDA | I.G.C | FAO |
| Prod change 22/23 to 21/22 | -1.5% | -1.53% | -0.7% |
| Consumption change 22/23 to 21/22 | -1.2% | -0.26% | -0.12% |
Different survey and evaluation methods used by the estimation institutions do not allow a direct absolute comparison of the results. Therefore only deliver the changessufficiently reliable reference values.What they all have in common is a reduction in the global supply situation. The most recent publication comes from the FAO with only minor deviations from the previous year's result. The FAO sees the reason for the small reduction in the 2022/23 harvest in a series of balancing results between lower and higher harvests. Better results are expected in Russia, Canada, Brazil and Argentina. This should almost compensate for the loss or decline in production volumes in the Ukraine. But not all harvests are wrapped up yet. In terms of exports, the FAO expects higher exports from Canada, the USA and also Russia, which can compensate for a significant part of the Ukrainian supply shortfalls. However, the transport logistics remain critical. The global supply situation remains tight. For this reason, grain prices are expected to remain high, even if the effect of price increases in Ukraine subsides.
