08.
05.15
09:00

FAO estimates lower world grain harvest, but supply remains in good midfield

FAO: grain harvest secured 2015/16 1.5% lower, supply

 The agricultural and food Department of the United Nations (FAO) estimates the upcoming crop of cereals (excluding rice) 2015/16 rd. 2.009 million tonnes and that about 43 million tonnes lower than in the previous year. Measured on the long-term trend, the result remains slightly below the forecast lines expected.

The global wheat harvest is at 719 million tonnes (previous year 730 million tonnes) estimated and achieved thus a fine average result. The world's largest producers of EU stays behind with about 8 million t behind the previous year. For Russia and the Ukraine appreciates the FAO of together approximately 7 million less. In the United States, the wheat harvest to fall only marginally better.

In the case of other cereal harvesting to 1.290 million tonnes is (previous year 1,324 million metric tons) lower estimated to 34 million tonnes.  The largest share of the decline are predicted for the United States with 12 million tonnes. In the EU, the result of harvest for the crop without wheat to 8 million tonnes to fall back on a lower maize harvest due to a considerable extent. Lower maize harvests are predicted up to 6 million tonnes in the two South American countries, Brazil and Argentina.

A consumption volume is estimated on the demand side rd 5 million tonnes higher than the current crop of approximately 2,014 million tonnes. Measured at the previous years of consumption growth goes back to a little, remains still on the long-term trend line.

Global wheat consumption , the FAO estimates a volume of 716 million tonnes (previous year 712 million tonnes) well below the harvest results.  The many small increases in consumption are reflected in nearly all import regions. The most populous China has the greatest need for increase of almost 3 million tonnes.

In the remaining grain sector is increasing consumption of 1,285 million tonnes 1,298 million tonnes ahead estimated.  A consumption is attributed to the United States in the amount of 5 million tons due to higher livestock and the production of bioethanol. About 3 million tons more are estimated for the EU.  China's grain consumption to rise by 2 million tonnes. The same increase will be applied also for Brazil with growing poultry flocks.

Calculated for the global grain balance is a light stock removal t 469,4 million to 458,5 million t. measured consumption is thus price crucial supply indicator "stock to use ratio" 22,08 "according to calculation method of the FAO. Compared to the expiring year with 23.5 percent in 2014/15 is a decline to determine, which is but little secured and in good midfield of the long-term results.

 As a result, it can be stated, that the to 43 million tonnes lower world harvest 2015/16 is offset by the increase of initial stocks to almost 40 million for the most part . The connection of the current in the coming year should be so easily. Even smaller crop failures could be coped with.

Because of the close correlation between supply and average grain prices is to be expected on the basis of FAO estimate a fixed price level for 2015/16 . That does not rule out around a temporary price weakness to the harvest time .

The note should not be missed, that the estimate date is may still considerably before the actual harvest results.

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