FAO: first estimates to harvest 2016

FAO with mixed prospects for the harvest of 2016

In its most recent issue, the food and Agriculture Organization FAO estimates the prospects for the harvest with partly contradictory developments. It remains open given the uncertainty about the future, which of the developments is to prevail.

The initial data for the year of grain are estimated with about 475 million t at an above-average level.  This wheat plays a special role with a supply number of 29.5% closing stock consumption compared to the multi-annual average 26.5%. The first provides a soothing location.

The upcoming global wheat crop are identified but distinct developments. In the United States is assumed due to the cultivation of the smallest wheat crop since 2010. To what extent the recent storms and snow drifts have caused further damage, remains to be seen. 

In Canada it is of a reduced production of wheat with less than average yields as a result of the aftermath of the El Niño weather event.

In the Ukraine , an estimated 18% of farmland as a result of the drought could not be sown in autumn.  The ordered surfaces are more than one-third with bad until very judged. Only one-third is classified as well. More impacts on the Dewinterizing are cannot be ruled out.

In Russia , most of the winter crops in good shape should be. Only small areas in the South could have been damage according to current knowledge.

For the vast majority of the EU it is favorable launch conditions. Only in Poland and South adjoining areas is reported by major Dewinterizing damage still unknown amount.

In India , low water supplies have led to restrictions in the production. Considerable part of the deficit is intended to cover the extensive stocks. In addition is dispenses with the export and import larger quantities.

Major failures in South Africa and adjacent regions lead to unexpectedly high increases in import, which 2016 to quote are at least at 5 million to 7 million tonnes in the 1st half of the year.

In China it is unmodified cultivation conditions. The corrected minimum pricing policy should lead to no fundamental changes for the time being.

 In Australia , expect a favourable start of the wheat harvest in 2016. 

In South America , expect no increases during the wheat harvest. The forecasts for rising corn results have improved somewhat recently.

Overall, the FAO is of very uneven products of part of made from, yet not indicated a clear direction.

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