FAO optimistic harvest estimate 2015/16

July estimate of FAO:

Cereal balance sheet 2015 / / 16: + 3.5 million tons more production, but 10 million tonnes more consumption

In the latest monthly edition of the food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) experts estimate 2015/16 again higher harvest than in the previous month. While the wheat harvest remains unchanged the estimate result with 723 million tonnes, an increase of 3.5 million was specifically in the corn for the other cereals,. t estimated.

H this assessment a little surprisingly optimistisccomes at a time in a series of weather-related impairments are dryness and wetness in major growing areas. The country-specific forecasts are significant deviations from the USDA data or IGC results to make out. The survey - and evaluation methods vary however between the individual institutions.

On the uses side, the FAO estimates higher consumption figures in the wheat clearly reaches a size of 4.5 million tonnes. The wheat trade varies only 1 million tons compared to the previous calculations.

The supply situation in the wheat sector - compared to the stock to use ratio - closing stock is 27.7% of consumption above the average of recent years, but remains behind the high results of the previous year by 0.5% points back. With this assessment, the different treasure institutions come together closer: the upcoming year remains powered slightly weaker than the previous record year.

At the other crop production should be around 3.5 million tons higher at 1.303,8 million tonnes. Here, the higher expectations of harvest in maize play a decisive role. On the uses side, 6.3 million tonnes are appreciated more consumption, their additional need is seen in the feed and industrial sectors.

The calculated supply situation at the other crop remains the same closing stock despite the changes with 20% for consumption. The value is above the multi-annual average, similarly as with the other institutions of the treasure also.

As a result, the FAO regarding the supply situation despite different output values also comes to a similar conclusion as other institutions. Surprisingly, however, remains low taking into account of the recent crop-damaging weather events. The problem might be that no sufficiently reliable data material for such cases is.

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