IGC cuts global grain supply again - corn scarcer than wheat In its February 2022 issue, the International Grains Council (IGC) estimated the world grain harvest 2021/22 at 2,281 million t, which is 5 million t lower than in the previous month. Global consumption is reduced only slightly to 2,286 million t. Stocks fall back to 596 million t. The supply figure decreases to 26.1% final stock (previous year 27.1%) for consumption, without China the stocks fall to 15.6%. The development over several years of a tighter supply situation compared to previous years is confirmed again. The monthly estimates of the various institutions continue to converge and the corrections are only within narrow limits. The IGC estimates the global supply on the wheat market (excluding China) at around 23% end stock to consumption (previous year 24%). The slump in production in Canada , with a decline of 38%, remains the decisive factor.Russia 's harvest reduction of almost 12% compared to the previous year also plays a decisive role. The harvest increases in Ukraine (+30%), Argentina (+20%) and Australia (+6%) cannot compensate for this in terms of absolute volume. The wheat exports of the world's largest exporting countries remain below the previous year by -45% (-11 million t) in Canada and by -10% (-5 million t) in Russia . In contrast, rising export volumes are still expected to continue in the Ukraine (+7 million t) and the EU-27 (+7.5 million t). On the import side , however, there has been a significant increase from 190 to 197 million tons in the previous year. A pronounced precautionary behavior can be observed. The IGC reduced global corn production by 4 million t compared to the previous month to 1,203 million t. The drought-related weak harvest expectations in South America are decisive. Consumption is estimated at 1,199 milliont but slightly higher ranked. Without China, the end stock for consumption is estimated at only 10% and only lasts for around 37 days . Global corn trade falls 10 million t year-on-year. China's maize imports alone are estimated to be 13 million t lower. Despite the comparatively stable fundamentals, there is a lot of movement in the prices. stand behind
- Fears of incidents and bottlenecks due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict
- Uncertainties about the outcome of the South American crops in the 1sthalf year 2022
- Covid-related restrictions on world trade
- Yield-related harvest losses in 2022 due to the scarce and expensive fertilizer supply
- Increased stockpiling by importing countries
- High price sensitivity in a tight supply situation
The USDA report on the Chicago Stock Exchange boosted the rise in corn prices again to €224/t. Wheat remained largely unimpressed at 257 €/t Prices on the Paris stock exchange are continuing to stabilize after the brief downturn. Wheat is quoted at 267 €/t for the delivery month Mar-22, while corn prices increased comparatively little to 252 €/t.
