ABARES: Australia expects high harvest, but a weak export business The Australian Department of agriculture (ABARES) estimates due to favourable weather conditions develop an above-average harvest in the Nov/Dec 2016. ABARES estimates the wheat crop to 25.5 million tons approximately 5% higher than in the previous year. Market experts expect even over 26 million tonnes. So far already above-average rainfall have resulted in high-yield stocks in the order months of May and June. The La Niña weather phenomenon usually contributes to more rainfall in the next phase of growth. A similar increase by 5% to a total of 9 million tonnes expected in the barley. Australia the connection supply provides together with the South American crop areas until the new harvest. This year, the market situation is so unfavourable, because the prospect of providing connection are anything other than critical. As a last provider in the number of exporters, Australia has an uphill battle. Accordingly giving after the prize claims must fail, if you want to stay in business. For the export it is therefore less optimistic. The high global inventories push export prices. The Australian competitiveness with its major competitors is rather low estimated. The result is a price pressing inventory build-up. The low freight rates in the overseas business lead to lower costs of transport from the Black Sea region after Indonesia, the main sales area of Australian wheat as of the southern sea ports of Australia. On the other hand it is optimistic with good wheat quality - unless they be achieved because to be able to use the scarce this year supply in this quality segment.
