Leading institutions express themselves to the maize prices 2017 The expectations on US corn prices of next year 2017 according to opinions of leading institutions vary from 3.2 to $4 each bu (120 to €155 / t). The forward rates from March to December 2017 range from 3.50 to $3.80 ever bu. The reasons for the coming price development are diverse. First is pointed out. that the current worldwide inventories with 222 million tonnes or 21.6% stock to use ratio above average higher. The multi-year average is 18.6%. That provides solid cushioning potential compared to first possible harvest reductions. Limiting factor is pointed out however that a big factor is China with 106 million tonnes of final data . That is gaining while against the backdrop of a strung systematic degradation of the Chinese surplus stocks, on the other hand of which the rest of the world will feel little, because hardly a significantly modified trading is expected. The upcoming large maize harvest in South America in the 1st half of 2017. provides for special attention 36 million tonnes are for Argentina and for the Brazilian first and second harvest estimated 86.5 million tonnes . Last year, both countries have reaped together only 96 million tonnes or about 25% less. The export volume of the two countries to approximately 48 Mio.t amount to. The largest importance to however the coming of corn acreage in the United States . After all, the U.S. share of the global corn production is about 35%. According to the current state of the soy / corn price ratio of 2.8 to US farmers be restrict corn cultivation in favour of soya bean 1. Largely matching estimates a reduction of rd 4% . Single estimates at a 6% decline. Subordinated to an average Flächenertrag, which will reach not the record level of last year, is the upcoming US harvest in the autumn of 2017 to about 8.5% lower. Consumption in an adopted little changed will be the US surplus stocks from current 61 to 48 million tons, a still average value. Greater uncertainty comes from the political side of the new Government. Multiple opinions on the weak effectiveness of US production of bioethanol in terms of environmental protection could be corn demand is significantly reduced, if the State-prescribed admixture percentage should be repealed. At least rd. hiking corn or approximately 35% in the Bioethanolsektor 138 million tonnes. More uncertainty could arise through politically changed trade relations United States and Mexico of the new Government. Mexico is one of the largest importers of U.S. corn. The other corn crops on world level only a child importance. "US-Commerzbank" goes from 3.5 to $3.8 from each bu corn in the course of the year 2017. ' Goldman Sachs ' estimates a 12-month average of $3.35 ever bu. "Rabobank" gives a range of 3.4 to $3.65 in each bu. "Focus Economics" with 4.02 expresses the highest expectations $/ bu in the 4th quarter 2017. For the derivation of European prices come even once the uncertainties about the exchange rate to. Then high spreads between U.S. and EU prices should however are not beibeahalten at average EU crop.
