How big is Russia's grain harvest by 2015?

Russia's grain harvest: estimates just below record results to the risk of self catering

The upcoming grain harvest in Russia is estimated very differently. The range of results ranging from 75 million tons to 100 million tonnes.

So far, the highest numbers of harvest came from the Russian Ministry of agriculture. The Government estimated the upcoming harvest result to around 100 million tonnes, slightly less than the 104 million tonnes of the previous year. The numbers are based on the mild winter and the rest of the originally weak seed stands. Government is expected to a vigorous expansion of the summer crops.

A well-known Russian agricultural Advisory Board estimates the harvest in the range between 85 and 95 million tonnes. It is pointed out the drought-related thin stocks in parts of Russia. In other areas were to determine Dewinterizing damage estimated in the order of 10 to 15%. The argument focuses on the economical use of significantly verteuerter resources such as seed, fertilizer, pesticides and fuel. Lower revenues were the result. Spring orders to not so great fail because even weak seed stands for cost reasons are not necessarily newly ordered.

Even more critical, Managing Director of major producer groups see the upcoming grain harvest in Russia. Harvest numbers between 75 and 85 million tons are called according to their findings on the spot. First it is confirmed that district South to Krasnodar, although weak seed stocks were, but observed as a result of the mild winter and the rain falls regional improvement had occurred.

However, there's been significantly larger Dewinterizing damage in the Volgograd region. An extensive new seeding would partly be avoided, because the funding for seed, fertilizer and other resources were too expensive or completely missing. Cost increases by 50% to 200% were called, were created as a result of the high inflation rate and the fall in the price of the ruble.

To what extent Government support measures for underway show a sufficient effect, there is little doubt. Since it relies more on held back grain in silos, which serves as a reserve currency. However, the lure for export was quite large, so the stocks are not too lush.

Yet in the months, the decisive phase of the grain filling is imminent May/June. Usually no or few rainfall then continental climate condition. Larger dry periods occur with considerable regularity from 2 to 4 years. The impact was so massive in the past few years that the self-sufficiency of Russia was in danger. The Russian domestic consumption is around 75 million tonnes with a slightly increasing tendency. The last catastrophic crop year took place in Russia 2009/10. At that time you adopted a strict export ban on right at the beginning of the harvest.

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