04.
12.15
12:25

How developed the EU cereals market in the next 10 years

Prospects for the EU cereal market 2015 2025

In their recent medium-term Outlook on the grain market is the European Commission by 2015 from an exceptionally good supply situation. A distinction is made between the wheat market with high harvest results and the corn market, which all over the world and especially significantly weaker has failed in the EU.  The rates narrowing the EU Commission between 150 and €180 per t. Lower price she deems unlikely given the strong demand and the risk of remaining connection harvests in the southern hemisphere with the forthcoming El Niño weather phenomenon.

Up to the year 2025 the EU wheat production to 145 million tons and maize to 73 million tonnes still moderate rise. The reasons are a diminishing agricultural land and limited rising income, measured in the preceding decade.

The demand for grain is expected to increase as compared to 2010 and 2015 by 5% by the year 2025. The main drive comes from the feed sector with growing meat and milk production. In addition a greater demand from the Bioethanolsektor, which, however, does not exceed a 5% market share in the future. Increasing consumption is also expected from corn use for the production of isoglucose following the expiry of the sugar quota system.

The EU cereal exports to increase in the next 10 years by another 7% by 2025. The demand is further from the Mediterranean region and the Middle East. China is to again become the recipients of EU exports, if the Chinese supply situation has normalized again.

On the import side remains a rising import demand for the EU of corn, durum and oats, which is located only 30 of the export volume.

The future developments of supply measured are applied to the surplus stocks to consumption on a significantly lower level than in the past few decades.

The grain price development estimates the Commission at least as much as the current level with a significant increase in the year 2019. The average value for wheat to focus just above the 180 €/ t mark for wheat. The price history will run but not as straight forward as in the forecast, but with considerable variations depending on the global harvest results. To exchange rate changes and not to exclude political influences such as export taxes, etc. are added.

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