IAMO: Black Sea countries remain far below the ways of their wheat production

The Black Sea countries draw from their wheat production capacity only to the half. (IAMO Institute Leibzig) 100 million tonnes of wheat per year in the Black Sea countries are Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan during favourable climatic conditions produced. With 15% world market share the 3 countries belong to the leading export Nations. After the political changes in 1989, the production fell initially strongly and recovered again until the middle of the first decade of the Millennium 2.

The available surface potential is not fully exploited. In the short term, around 4.5 million hectares could be mobilised Barrens.  Of the Soviet past, even 10 million hectares could lie fallow but 30 years which are now overgrown with trees.

The average income of the countries lie with 30 dt / ha in the Ukraine, 20 dt / ha in Russia and only 10 dt / ha in Kazakhstan significantly below the median of all EU countries with approximately 55 dt / ha. But the regions are very different climatic and favored in terms of soil quality. The range extends up to-40 degrees C by Mediterranean climate on the Black Sea to pronounced continental climate, with a frost-free growing season of less than 120 days as well as hot dry summers and cold winters with temperatures. The soil conditions cover the full range of rich deep black earth soils to sandy soil and peat sites. The irrigation system dating back to earlier decades.

Crop failures caused by drought in the seed and grain formation stage, as well as high Dewinterizing damage are observed in all 3 States with considerable regularity . The last large crop failures took place in 2010 and 2012, where Dewinterizing damage and a dry early summer halved the possible result of the harvest. After two good years, % is assumed for the year 2015 already due to the inadequate field orders, political and inflationistischer problems of resources deployment with a loss for the previous year by 15 to 20. How is the summer, still remains open.

Latest figures show the University Leibzig (IAMO), that measures, such as the reclamation of younger set-aside land, she could increase wheat production in Russia by up to 50 million tons per year. The mobilization of such production and export potential but decisively depends on the future market and competitive conditions, and political conditions.

In response to rising world market prices for cereals in the last ten years has been interfered with a variety of export restrictions in Russia, the Ukraine and Kazakhstan in the markets. This government intervention should keep affordable grain and bread prices, however resulted in that unsettled the markets significantly, temporarily suspended exports and overrides a regulated pricing were.

There are investment and management shortcomings that inhibit business growth and the efficient use of corporate resources. The transport and storage capacity are still largely from Soviet times, are ailing and no longer meet the modern requirements of a powerful marketing. Warehousing, Binnenlandtransport and port capacity are working at capacity and cost disproportionately high marketing costs, which are 4 to 5 times higher than in the EU. Occasionally, the shipping costs are higher than the value of the cargo.

Due to existing circumstances is not to be expectedthat Russia, the Ukraine and Kazakhstan in the foreseeable capable of will be market and its growth potential to exploit. Market-based and export-oriented policies and investments in spatial and operational infrastructure are urgently needed

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