IGC cuts global grain harvest 2022/23 by 8 million t compared to previous month's estimate In the latest Feb. 2023 issue, the International Grains Council (IGC) estimates the global grain harvest to be around 8 million t lower than in Jan. 2023. The main reason is the downgrading of the corn harvests in the USA and Argentina. Total grain consumption is estimated to be 9 Mt lower than in Jan-2023. Compared to 2021/22, global grain production is down 1.9%, while global consumption is down just 1.25%. The consequence is the continuation of a supply situation that has been falling for years with a current 25.5% ending inventory for consumption or a range of 93 days, but only 53 days without China. The global wheat harvest is estimated unchanged at 796 million tons compared to the previous month (previous year, however, only 781 million tons). Nothing has changed in terms of consumption either, at 789 million tons. The surplus stock for next year increases slightly to 282 million t. (Without China 143 milliont) In the case of maize production, the IGC estimate from the previous month was reduced to 1,153 million t; consumption falls back to 1,180 million t. In comparison to the previous year, the stocks are estimated to be significantly lower by 28 million t or -9.6% to 255 million t (without China 78 million t or 33 days). The forecast for the coming grain year 2023/24 is still very cautious due to the uncertain situation in Ukraine.
- In any case, global opening stocks are lower
- For wheat, global production is expected to be lower but increasing
(Backup) requirement assumed. The consequence is an expected reduction in inventories.
- The global corn acreage is expected to increase, but the barley acreage will fall.
- A fundamental improvement in the supply situation is not very likely.
On the Chicago Stock Exchange, Sep 2023 wheat futures prices are trending higher. On the other hand, corn is falling significantly in anticipation of the new US harvest. On the Paris Stock Exchange, the Sep-23 futures prices for wheat and corn fall only slightly.
