21.
01.16
17:06

IGC estimate to the cereals market: smaller harvest - high end stocks

IGC corrected grain harvest by 2015/16 bit down - but also the consumption

In his Publication of January to assess the global situation on the cereals market the International Grains Council (IGC) has presented its last in November estimate corrected.  The total production of cereals excluding rice was set to 4 million tonnes down. The bad harvests in South Africa and the crop failures in India are the main reason.

The global consumption has been reset to 8 million tonnes. Reasons include loss of demand in the industrial sector as a result of the low price of crude oil and less high consumption increases in the animal feed sector.

Worldwide, the IGC estimates the overhang stocks at the end of the marketing year to 455 million tonnesin 2015/16. Thus, the stocks from the previous year should have to again.

The wheat crop by 2015/16 was estimated around 6 million tonnes higher than even in the Nov. 15 - output. The consumption of wheat has been only marginally. Thus, the closing stock at wheat increase to 213 million tons, or about 29% of the consumption.

During the corn harvest by 2015/16 Nov. - was abbreviated - 8 million tons the month 15 significantly. The harvest attributable to the El Niño weather event in South Africa to contribute a significant contribution. In comparison, the global corn harvest to 54 million becomes the previous year  t or - 5.6% lower estimated. On the consumption side, the IGC estimates a decline to rd.  20 million t, which is based in the industrial sector in particular. The corn balance by 2015/16 cut off at the end of the marketing year 2015/16 with a 9 million tonnes lower end stock for the previous year.

For the upcoming fiscal year 2016/17 of the IGC in a first cautious assessment assumes a smaller wheat crop in height of 706 million tonnes or -3%. Space constraints in the Black Sea region, Dewinterizing damage and only average income are the supporting foundations for this forecast. The high overlapping stocks provide a possible compensation, so that the supply situation of the coming year must be not necessarily worse than this year.

Return the global trade in cereals . This will be 1. Imports of China's limited line that traced. With their strong dollar are not especially competitive on the world markets and the United States, so it must take a back. Also the EU export reached the previous year's result.  A part is controlled by the record exports from the Black Sea region.

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